Merlin stock (NASDAQ: MRLN)

Listing

Nasdaq MRLN from 17 Mar 2026, after the Inflection Point IV business combination closed 16 Mar 2026. About 90% of public Class A shares were redeemed (22,550,551 of 25,000,000). Net cash at close was about $94.7M after trust proceeds, a $120M closing PIPE (including $100M from Alyeska), transaction expenses, and repayment of the 2024 loan facility. The SPAC issued rights (BACQR), not public warrants. (closing 8-K 20 Mar 2026 · Apr 21 424B3)

Capital structure

• Common shares: 100,592,160 issued and outstanding at 30 Jun 2026; 101,067,784 noted around 11 Aug 2026 in the same 10-Q. Closing-day sources also print either 84,262,886 or 84,540,978 — the filings disagree. (Q2 10-Q · closing 8-K)
• Series A preferred: 18,649,567 outstanding at 30 Jun 2026 after conversions; 12.0% cumulative convertible preferred with a conversion price reset mechanism. (Q2 10-Q)
• Private PIPE warrants: 36,116,246 Series A warrants plus 4,000,000 May PIPE warrants (40,116,246 total), strike $6.67 after the May down-round reset, expiry in 2031. Filings conflict on the May PIPE warrant day (29 Apr 2031 in the May prospectus vs 1 May 2031 in the Q2 10-Q). (Q2 10-Q · May 13 prospectus)
• May 2026 Alyeska PIPE: SPA signed 29 Apr 2026; closed 1 May 2026 — 8,000,000 common shares at $10 ($80M) plus warrants on 4,000,000 shares at $6.67. Preferred conversion and warrant strikes reset from $12 to $6.67, producing a $60.8M deemed dividend. (8-K 29 Apr 2026 · Q2 10-Q)
• No listed warrants: MRLN common only. SPAC rights converted; Series A / May PIPE warrants are private. (Apr 21 424B3)
• Other dilutives at 30 Jun 2026: 8,172,229 options (WAEP $4.18); 3,866,520 unvested RSUs. (Q2 10-Q)
• Resale registration: Apr 21 prospectus registered up to about 157.7M secondary common shares under Reg. No. 333-295068. Sponsor founder share cost basis about $0.004. (Apr 21 424B3)

Cash and financials

Cash at 30 Jun 2026: $183.6M ($183,550 thousand in the 10-Q). Short-term investments were $321 thousand. No debt. The company concluded cash was sufficient for the next 12 months and did not assert substantial doubt about going concern. Q2 2026 revenue was about $2.2M; first-half 2026 revenue about $3.2M against an S-4 projection of $32.0M for full-year 2026. (Q2 10-Q filed 14 Aug 2026 · 13 Aug results)

Lockup overhang

Six-month lockup for sponsor founder shares and Merlin lock-up holders ended around 16 Sep 2026. That day First Round funds distributed roughly 11.75M common shares to LPs and the sponsor distributed 8,333,333 founder shares to members. (closing 8-K · Forms 4 / 13G/A filed 18 Sep 2026)

Market facts

• Prices quoted in filings: $10.87 on 13 Apr 2026; $8.97 on 5 May 2026; $7.18 on 1 Jun 2026; $3.32 on 19 Aug 2026; $2.21 on 16 Sep 2026 (RSU tax-withholding Forms 4). (May prospectus · Aug 424B3 supplements · Forms 4 filed 18 Sep 2026)
• Last close cited: $1.71 on 2 Oct 2026; market cap about $173M. (market data aggregators as of 2 Oct 2026)
• Short interest: about 10.54M shares (~11% of float) as of 15 Sep 2026. (MarketBeat / FINRA short-interest summaries)

Warrant / preferred reset (~15 Oct 2026, estimated)

The Q2 10-Q describes a reset on the 21st trading day after the date that is six months after closing. Closing was 16 Mar 2026, so the six-month anniversary is 16 Sep 2026; the measurement window falls around mid-October 2026 (about 15 Oct 2026 if counted as the 21st trading day after 16 Sep). If the 20-day VWAP is below the then-current price, the strike / conversion resets to the greater of that VWAP and a $5.00 floor. At recent prices near $1.71, the reset may hit that floor. This date is estimated from the filing’s formula; Merlin has not published a calendar notice of the exact reset day. (Q2 10-Q warrant note)

Analyst targets (as published)

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